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A Show of Resilience amid Economic Challenges

In the recently published Q3:2023 GDP report by the NBS, the Nigerian economy grew modestly by 2.54% YoY compared to 2.51% YoY in Q2:2023. This marks the twelfth (12th) consecutive quarter of expansion since H2:2020, underscoring the doggedness of the Nigeria economy despite macroeconomic and structural challenges including inflationary pressure, high-interest rate environment and insecurity issues.

In Q4:2023, we expect further improvement in GDP figures spurred on by the optimism surrounding increased oil production in Q4 and its likely effect on oil sector growth. Furthermore, we believe that the festivities in the quarter will help to improve non-oil sector growth, particularly the agriculture sector. For the most part, our base case forecast for 2023FY GDP growth remains 2.66%.

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