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Yesterday, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released the Foreign Trade in Goods statistics for Q2:2023. On a Quarter-on-Quarter (QoQ) basis, Total Trade increased by 5.77% to NGN12.74trn (vs. NGN12.05trn in Q1:2023). This is due to the growth in both Total Imports (+2.99% QoQ) and Total Exports (+8.15% QoQ) to NGN5.73trn and NGN7.02trn respectively. However, we observed that Total Trade declined by 7.60% year-on-year (YoY) in Q2:2023 (vs. NGN13.79trn in Q2:2022). Consequently, Total Imports and Total Exports fell by 10.37% YoY and 5.20% YoY respectively in Q2:2023. Notably, Balance of Trade maintained its surplus streak for the third (3rd) consecutive quarter as it climbed by 39.1% QoQ to NGN1.29trn in Q2:2023 (vs. NGN927.16bn in Q1:2023). Overall, Balance of Trade settled at NGN2.22trn in H1:2023 compared to NGN618.81bn in H1:2022.

In Q3:2023, we expect that the devaluation of the Naira following the FX liberalization policy, will spur an increase in the proceeds from Goods Exports. Notwithstanding ongoing issues such as oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and infrastructural challenges, which have begun to affect Q3:2023 oil production (1.08MMbpd in July 2023 vs. 1.25MMbpd in June 2023), we expect that higher oil prices, driven by the extended voluntary production cuts made by Russia and Saudi Arabia, will boost Crude Oil Exports value in Q3:2023. Overall, we are optimistic that Nigeria’s Balance of Trade will remain in the positive territory in Q3:2023.

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