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A Moderation in Sight?

Yesterday, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) published the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March 2024. Headline inflation sustained its upward trajectory, climbing 150bps to 33.20% Year-on-Year (YoY), up from 31.70% YoY recorded in February 2024. This was driven by significant increases in its two (2) main subcomponents: food (+209bps to 40.01% YoY) and core (+77bps to 25.90% YoY) inflation. On a Month-on-Month (MoM) basis, the headline inflation declined slightly by 10bps to 3.02% MoM compared to 3.12% MoM in February 2024. This fall in headline inflation was driven by a decrease in food (-18bps to 3.62%) inflation. Conversely, core inflation rose by 37bps to 2.54% MoM. Excluding insecurity, which negatively impacts food production and supply, decrepit infrastructure across the country impedes growth and contributes to the persistent food inflation on a YoY basis.

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