If you’ve been investing in Nigeria over the past few years, you already know one thing: the macro story matters. Inflation, FX policy, interest rates, these aren’t just headlines. They directly affect your returns, your portfolio, and your peace of mind.

The good news? 2025 brought signs of stability. And 2026 could be a year where informed investors truly benefit, if they know how to position themselves.

Here’s what investors need to know and how to position their portfolios for the year ahead.

2025 saw Nigeria’s headline inflation decline significantly, driven by improved food supply, FX stability, and easing cost pressures. This disinflation trend gave the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) confidence to cut the policy rate, the first reduction in five years, signalling a shift from aggressive tightening to cautious easing.

What to expect in 2026

• Inflation is projected to average around 15.2%, supported by improved agricultural output, easing fuel costs, and stable exchange rates.
• The CBN is expected to cut rates further by 100–200 basis points, but cautiously, to preserve Nigeria’s real yield advantage and attract foreign capital.

Lower rates generally support equities and bonds, but policy caution means yields may remain attractive for fixed income investors.

Now, let’s take a closer look at FX policies and stability. Foreign exchange stability has been one of the most important macro shifts in Nigeria’s economy. A more transparent FX regime, improved inflows, and disciplined monetary policy have helped stabilise the naira.

Key risks to watch

• Pre-election fiscal spending
• Global capital flow volatility
• Commodity price swings

Nigeria’s fixed-income market performed strongly in 2025 as yields moderated across the curve. With easing monetary policy expected in 2026, yields could decline further, especially at the short end of the curve.

Enforcing strategic positioning. A barbell strategy is recommended:

• Short-term NT-Bills (0–90 days) to preserve liquidity
• Medium to long-term instruments (182–364-day NT-Bills and 2–9-year FGN Bonds) to capture carry and potential capital gains

Fixed income remains attractive, especially for income-seeking and risk-averse investors.

Nigeria’s equity market remains sensitive to macroeconomic trends. Lower interest rates, improving FX stability, and easing inflation could support earnings growth and market valuations.

The following factors are what could drive equities in 2026

• Lower funding costs for corporates
• Improved consumer spending as inflation eases
• Renewed foreign portfolio inflows

Equities could outperform in a rate-cutting environment, but stock selection and sector diversification will be critical.

What to Expect

While the outlook is cautiously optimistic, risks remain:

• Pre-election fiscal spending, which could pressure inflation and FX
• Insecurity in food-producing regions affects food prices
• Seasonal supply shocks, particularly in agriculture
• Global market volatility, especially interest rate shifts in developed markets

Diversification across asset classes and currencies remains essential.

How Investors Can Stay Ready

To navigate Nigeria’s evolving economy in 2026, investors should:

• Diversify across fixed income, equities, and alternative assets
• Balance liquidity needs with long-term growth opportunities
• Monitor macro indicators like inflation, FX reserves, and CBN policy signals
• Work with professional advisors to adjust portfolio positioning

Nigeria’s economy is entering a phase of cautious recovery. Falling inflation, improving FX stability, and a gradual shift toward monetary easing create a supportive environment for investors, but with important risks to manage.

For investors who stay informed, diversified, and strategic, 2026 could be a year of meaningful portfolio growth.

If you want more insight into the H1: 2026 Market Outlook, click here to download and read our Nigeria Strategy Report (NSR). Take advantage of evolving market opportunities today. Explore simple market instruments such as mutual funds on the ARM One app and position your portfolio for steady returns.