Stock Recommendation for the Week, November 12

By November 13, 2019Research

The Nigerian bourse ended last week in green as gains particularly on Monday (+41bps) and Friday (+48bps) trading muted losses observed every other day of the week. Consequently, the ASI as well as Market Cap increased by 8bps WoW to 26,314.49 pts and N10.3 billion respectively. Banking sector (+8.07%) anchored the gains while other sectors closed negative, with bulk of the decline seen in Personal Care (-20.45%) WoW. On stock performances, ACCESS (+17.95%), FCMB (+16.25%), UBA (+13.79%), GUARANTY (+13.49%), CCNN (+10.06%) recorded gains muting declines in UNILEVER (-26.59%), INTBREW (-25.4%) and DANGCEM (-2.47%) WoW amongst others.

• DANGCEM– STRONG BUY (FVE: N240.87): DANGCEM’s earnings will be pressured this year (EPS: N14, vs N22 in 2018) owing to lower volumes in Nigeria business (due to increased competition from BUA Cement) and some of its Pan Africa business, as well as high base of tax credits from last year. That said, DANGCEM currently trades at FY 19E P/E of 11x on our estimates, which is cheap compared to WAPCO and CCNN of 17.7x and 16.8x, respectively. We believe current valuation is unjustified given the superior ROE of 24%.

• Nigerian Breweries Plc – STRONG BUY (FVE: N75.82): Intense competition from International Breweries (IB) and graduated excise duty (+17% YoY) that kicked-off in Jan-19, revenue growth is expected to be slow even as we expect higher finance cost (+38% YoY) to be another pressure point to earnings this year. However, given our case for a slight improvement in volumes and decline in cost of sales (-1.1% YoY) which translates to gross (+120bps YoY) and EBIT (+101bps YoY) margin expansion, the misery seems moderated. Overall, the net impact of all our adjustments translates to PBT of N29.9 billion and EPS of N2.58 (+6.3% YoY) over 2019.

• Guaranty Trust Bank Plc – STRONG BUY (FVE: N49.66): GTB’s 9M 19 earnings expanded modestly with PAT and EPS expanding only 3.4% YoY to N146.9 billion and N4.99/share respectively. Although, we expect a slower growth in EPS (+4% YoY to N6.53) over 2019, our case for GUARANTY remains the resilience in NIR, improved cost management, still strong loan book with a moderate expansion in credit loss provision to 0.5%.

• Nestle Plc – STRONG BUY (FVE: N1447.39): Amongst the food producers, Nestle Nigeria Plc has managed to stay afloat, reporting modest growth in earnings amidst incessant competition. For 9M 19, EPS expanded by 11.2% YoY to N46.48 driven largely by the absence of impairment charges which created a high base for input costs over the same period last year. Asides from improved earnings, its strong cash balance, return on equity and 100% dividend payout further supports the case for a STRONG BUY rating.

• Seplat Plc – STRONG BUY (FVE: N828.90): Following a stronger than expected oil exit rate in Q2 19, we have revised our FY19E total production estimate slightly higher to 50,266 boepd (previous: 49,765boepd) and crude oil price to $63.9/bbl. (previous: $60/bbl.). This coupled with a surprise gas toll revenue of $67 million in Q2, increased 2019E revenue to $701 million (previous: $656 million). Thus, our 2019E EPS and FCF/s were revised higher to $0.33 and $0.12, from previous estimate of $0.31 and -$0.02, respectively.

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